Thursday, December 26, 2013

The Eurozone was doomed from the start. The sooner it is disbanded the better. The EU itself should be reformed, with trade agreements being the main objective. No more idiotic EU rules and regulations. No more open borders, just a common market.

Rarely has the "economic gulf" that separates the English-speaking world and continental Europe looked quite as wide as it does today. While much of the eurozone remains mired in an economic funk, Britain and America are recovering fast, with rising demand and near record levels of private-sector job creation.
As if the last, crisis-ridden three years haven’t already given Europe’s policy elite enough to think about, this juxtaposition in fortunes must surely have awoken them to the truth: monetary union isn’t working. Unfortunately, the reality is that euroland continues to stumble blindly from one botched response to another, neither able to reconfigure the single currency in a more sustainable form nor enact the sort of measures that might give it a credible future. This week’s blueprint for a banking union is only the latest example. Even in Brussels, they struggled to call it a job well done; this was meant to be the most significant leap forward for European integration since the launch of the euro itself, but in the event it was just another messy compromise.
Overly complicated and chronically underfunded, it fails some of the most basic tests for any credible banking union. Decisions on whether to wind up failing banks remain subject to national veto; more crucially still, there is no agreement on collective responsibility for the costs. At some stage in the future, these things are meant to fall into place, but Europe really doesn’t have the luxury of time. Even major economies such as France, Italy and Spain are right on the edge of social and political fracture. The euro offers no plausible path back to growth, yet they cannot or will not give up on it.
Not that these failings should be cause for triumph in Britain and America. Europe’s tragedy is Britain’s misfortune, forcing the UK artificially to support demand via the palliative of extreme forms of monetary stimulus to avoid the same fate. This can work for a while, but eventually Britain needs to rebalance its economy away from consumption to trade and investment.
European leaders tend to console themselves with the thought that the UK’s economic recovery is therefore just a conjuring trick, which cannot last. Even so, they can no longer ignore the contrast. Their own forced march to ever closer union seems to have resulted only in policy paralysis and economic ruin. By pursuing their own solutions outside the madhouse of eurozone integration, Britain and America seem to have kickstarted growth. Europe needs monetary stimulus but thanks to a dysfunctional single currency cannot have it; it needs labour market reform, but outside Germany and its satellites, is unwilling to enact it; and it needs burden-sharing, but its nations are still too fiscally sovereign to contemplate it. European leaders naively seem to assume that recovery is just around the corner. The truth is that they have made themselves hostage to the storm even as America and Britain navigate their way out...It was always going to be the case that a feeble currency union could only work with political union. That is why if the Euro is to survive, the Eurozone must become a single country. This new country will include all the current Eurozone Members. Whatever name they chose to call it, in reality, it will ruled by Germany. The plan seems to be working...It was always going to be the case that a feeble currency union could only work with political union. That is why if the Euro is to survive, the Eurozone must become a single country. This new country will include all the current Eurozone Members. Whatever name they chose to call it, in reality, it will ruled by Germany. The plan seems to be working...  

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

This productivity issue is massive, and a big worry, as if there's no increase in economic output per worker, per hour, it makes wage rises less likely too.

The issue would appear to be about the type of workers we have, meaning economic output per worker is not rising on average. It's not to do with being 'lazy', or not working hard or efficient enough, just that the jobs themselves aren't generating more economic output than several years ago.

A reference with regard to this productivity gap issue:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/icp/international-comparisons-of-productivity/first-estimates-for-2012/stb-icp0913.html


Output per hour in the UK was 16 percentage points below the average for the rest of the major industrialised economies in 2012, the widest productivity gap since 1994. On an output per worker basis, UK productivity was 19 percentage points below the average for the rest of the G7 in 2012.

In 2012 UK output per hour was 2 percentage points below its level in the pre-recession year of 2007.

Japanese GDP per hour worked was 16% below the UK, so we were 2nd from bottom of the G7 for productivity.

Anonymous said...

markets in Hong Kong, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and India were closed for the holiday.

US stocks closed at a new all-time high on Christmas Eve, following solid reports on durable goods and new home sales.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit their highest-ever levels, rising 0.39pc to 16,357.55 and 0.29pc to 1,833.32 respectively. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tacked on 0.16pc to 4,155.41.

The November report on US durable goods orders showed an increase of 3.5pc, more than expected.

In another positive sign, the number of new home sales in the US in November, though slightly down from the October level, also beat expectations.

The news added to a run of recent figures showing a pick-up in the US economy - including data on unemployment and economic growth - indicating it is well on the road to recovery.

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would from next month reduce its stimulus programme by $10bn to $75bn a month.

Anonymous said...

the prospects for L'Hexagone do not look good. It does not surprise me because their chosen social model is not a sustainable economic model.

I hope I will live to see Britain as a free, prosperous and independent nation.

Anonymous said...

Slowing dragon

China's economy is too big to be affected by the taper caper, but the Politburo has been preoccupied with maintaining rocketing growth. The world's second largest economy is expected to have posted growth of 7.6% in 2013, just beating the government's 7.5% target, but far off the breakneck double-digit growth of the past. A slowdown in the expansion of Chinese factories in November confirmed those days are gone. A new set of Chinese leaders, installed in the autumn, are now attempting to switch the focus to domestic consumption, rather than just making shiny new toys for the rest of the world.

Anonymous said...



Financial reputations can also turn quickly, as Cyprus found out in March when it was forced to accept a €10bn (£8.4bn) bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. An earlier deal unravelled when depositors with savings under €100,000 were hit with a levy, prompting a fierce backlash. Cyprus was the latest convulsion in the eurozone crisis, otherwise in abeyance in 2013. But the effects lingered on. Ireland became the first country to break free of its bailout, but its citizens are still emigrating in droves. Youth unemployment in southern Europe hit record levels: 58% in Greece, 57.4% Spain and 41.2% in Italy.

Anonymous said...



Financial reputations can also turn quickly, as Cyprus found out in March when it was forced to accept a €10bn (£8.4bn) bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. An earlier deal unravelled when depositors with savings under €100,000 were hit with a levy, prompting a fierce backlash. Cyprus was the latest convulsion in the eurozone crisis, otherwise in abeyance in 2013. But the effects lingered on. Ireland became the first country to break free of its bailout, but its citizens are still emigrating in droves. Youth unemployment in southern Europe hit record levels: 58% in Greece, 57.4% Spain and 41.2% in Italy.

Anonymous said...

When economists attempt to scare eurozone leaders into action, they warn of Japan's lost decade, a prolonged deflationary slump when consumers lost confidence and hung on to their savings. Returning to power last December, the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, pledged to shake off Japan's economic malady with an unprecedented three-part economic plan to restore the world's third largest economy to health. "Abenomics" – printing money, government stimulus and structural reforms, such as raising consumption tax – has already boosted confidence. But critics fear an explosion in Japan's public debt, already close to 245% of economic output.

Anonymous said...

The emerging economies of Brazil, Turkey, India, Indonesia and South Africa were the biggest victims of investors' taper paranoia. These countries saw the value of their currencies plunge as foreign investors withdrew funds from their economies, fearing the end of cheap money. Stock markets plummeted, while India's rupee hit an all-time low. Over the summer, governments of "the fragile five" were forced to hike rates to defend themselves from market volatility. But when the modest taper did come, emerging economies were spared the worst, although analysts warned more painful times could be in store.

Anonymous said...

Not exactly a whimper, but the big financial event of 2013 made less of a bang than anyone expected. In May, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, hinted that policymakers could start to unwind the massive $85bn (£52bn) per month bond-buying stimulus. Investors took fright as US stock market and bond prices plunged in the "taper tantrum". In December, when Bernanke surprised economists with a modest $10bn-a-month trimming of the stimulus, US markets soared. Or as some noted, the markets behaved like grown-ups.

Anonymous said...

n this year has been followed by comments confidently advising that the world economy was damaged beyond any conceivable repair, that "neo-liberal" capitalism was discredited to the point of being obsolete, that all debt would inevitably be cancelled, that anyone who had ever worked in a bank should/would be jailed/hung drawn and quartered, that hard currency would be replaced by a system of bartering beans, and that the proletariat would rise up to the exhort of the keyboard warriors and overthrow the evil empire...
Surely they couldn't have all been wrong? Could they?