Showing posts with label renuntarea la euro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label renuntarea la euro. Show all posts

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Excerpt from TOWER OF BASEL: The Shadowy History of the Secret Bank that Runs the World by Adam LeBor ... : The world’s most exclusive club has eighteen members. They gather every other month on a Sunday evening at 7 p.m. in conference room E in a circular tower block whose tinted windows overlook the central Basel railway station. Their discussion lasts for one hour, perhaps an hour and a half. Some of those present bring a colleague with them, but the aides rarely speak during this most confidential of conclaves. The meeting closes, the aides leave, and those remaining retire for dinner in the dining room on the eighteenth floor, rightly confident that the food and the wine will be superb. The meal, which continues until 11 p.m. or midnight, is where the real work is done. The protocol and hospitality, honed for more than eight decades, are faultless. Anything said at the dining table, it is understood, is not to be repeated elsewhere.  As a result of allegations that the BIS had helped the Germans loot assets from occupied countries during World War II, the Bretton Woods Conference recommended the "liquidation of the Bank for International Settlements at the earliest possible moment".[6] This resulted in the BIS being the subject of a disagreement between the non-governmental U.S. and British delegations. The liquidation of the bank was supported by other European delegates, as well as the United States (including Harry Dexter White, Secretary of the Treasury, and Henry Morgenthau),[7] but opposed by John Maynard Keynes, head of the British delegation.
Fearing that the BIS would be dissolved by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Keynes went to Morgenthau hoping to prevent the dissolution, or have it postponed, but the next day the dissolution of the BIS was approved. However, the liquidation of the bank was never actually undertaken.[8] In April 1945, the new U.S. president Harry S. Truman and the British government suspended the dissolution, and the decision to liquidate the BIS was officially reversed in 1948.[9]
One strongly suspects that Roosevelt was assassinated because of this. Cui Bono. Ditto Kennedy, who opposed the Federal Reserve, an unconstitutional abomination, with his famous executive order 11110. Again that was quietly forgotten about after the events in Dallas. One must always analyse subsequent events to understand who benefited from these atrocities... The BIS has the right to communicate in code and to send and receive correspondence in bags covered by the same protection as embassies, meaning they cannot be opened. The BIS is exempt from Swiss taxes. Its employees do not have to pay income tax on their salaries, which are usually generous, designed to compete with the private sector. The general man- ager’s salary in 2011 was 763,930 Swiss francs, while head of departments were paid 587,640 per annum, plus generous allowances. The bank’s extraordinary legal privileges also extend to its staff and directors. Senior managers enjoy a special status, similar to that of diplomats, while carrying out their duties in Switzerland, which means their bags cannot be searched (unless there is evidence of a blatant criminal act), and their papers are inviolable. The central bank governors traveling to Basel for the bimonthly meetings enjoy the same status while in Switzerland. All bank officials are immune under Swiss law, for life, for all the acts carried out during the discharge of their duties. The bank is a popular place to work and not just because of the salaries. Around six hundred staff come from over fifty countries. The atmosphere is multi-national and cosmopolitan, albeit very Swiss, emphasizing the bank’s hierarchy. Like many of those working for the UN or the IMF, some of the staff of the BIS, especially senior management, are driven by a sense of mission, that they are working for a higher, even celestial purpose and so are immune from normal considerations of accountability and transparency....The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is the bank for central banks. Its current members [ZH: as of 2013] include Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve; Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England; Mario Draghi, of the European Central Bank; Zhou Xiaochuan of the Bank of China; and the central bank governors of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Canada, India, and Brazil. Jaime Caruana, a former governor of the Bank of Spain, the BIS’s general manager, joins them.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Greece could be safe for another few weeks, according to the Times newspaper, if Germany pays back a loan they took out from the Greek Govt during the war. In today's money this was about 10 billion Euros. The loan was fully documented and acknowledged by Germany just 26 days prior to the end of the war. So Tsipras could dig out this document and use it as collateral. Pheww - Greece is saved - maybe!!!   Suddenly, share markets in European and USA have gone up hugely because of this good new of repayment to IMF.   However, it is more dangerous now. According to a report, Greece issue new T-bills to cover the repayment. Then, who has/have bought the new T-bills?
Firstly, these T-bills are at higher rates, like somewhat 3.5% which is much higher than the interest rates by ECB and IMF. So, some US economists are predicting the Greece default will happen just a little bit later. By laymen's saying, the can has been kicked further down the road. However, the can has also become bigger and harder to kick further down next time.  Secondly, if Greece keeps issuing T-bills and borrowing new debts from unknown lenders (like Russian consortia), then the issue is getting more and more nontransparent. This non-transparency may explode without early on notice, like the happening of bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers Bank in USA back in the end of 2008.  If you are a share trader, be careful.  Funny isn't it? If memory serves correctly the Greek Government have been demanding the return of 1.2 Billion Euros that were inadvertently overpaid by the previous Government and the only answer they have received so far from the ECB has been 'get stuffed'. Default Day arrives and hey presto! the ECB releases 1.2 Billion Euros to keep the Greek Economy out of it's coffin. Seems to me that the ONLY thing the Greeks received yesterday was their OWN money back dressed up as another LOAN....When this lot goes belly up, and it will, when the dust has settled and the TRUTH starts to come out, I think the world is going to be shocked beyond belief at the amount of lying, suffering and skullduggery that will be revealed...Daft ain't 'it.. child's  accounting..makes my grandson look smart. Unchecked decade of capital asset-flight pulling the carpet from under the Greek banks; EZB provides the drip-feed ELA's to counter; what the heck is Lagarde up to ? Give 'em whatever dosh and now "whoa got some back !" Tspiras thought he would bring down the rotten edifice and he's still got a few big chances to do it. Will he really press with the reforms, some fractious constitutional ones ? Doesn't look it. That transformer reform list that Yanis gave to the EU finance committee "Djssel diesel", is probably scrupled up and binned.
The problem is Lagarde, it couldn't get more fictive. It highlights the IMF's mistake of pumping Greece with bailout dosh in 2010. It's going to be mighty hard/impossible for Greece to deal with those massive May June reimbursements with without more assistance from the EZB, and Germany again coming into the fray as the stupid merry go round looses it's centrifuge.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

EU - Observer -- Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has put the painful question of German war reparations back on the table, saying his country was never paid for the infrastructural damage inflicted in World War II.  In a highly emotive speech before parliament on Tuesday (10 March), peppered with references to Nazism, the Third Reich, and the Holocaust, Tsipras said Berlin had an "unfulfilled moral, as well as material historic debt".  He acknowledged that Germany paid 115 million deutschmarks (€59 million) to Greece in 1960, but said this went only to individual victims of Nazis and did not compensate for the "destruction" of the country.   "This agreement, however, provided compensation only for the victims of the Nazis in Greece and not for the damages inflicted on the country itself," he said.  "And of course it did not relate either to the obligatory occupational loan or the claims for damages due to war crimes as a consequence of the nearly total destruction of the country’s infrastructure and the economy’s disintegration during the war and the occupation".  He accused Berlin, which has long said it has honored its war obligations, of using "legal technicalities" to get around paying.  "They see the mote in their brother's eye but not the beam in their own," he added, quoting a passage from the Bible, and speaking of a "moralistic tone" in Europe in an apparent allusion to Berlin's statements on Greece.  He also said that a parliament committee on "claiming the German debts owed to Greece" is to be reconstituted and upgraded and that his government will offer "political and legal assistance" so that its efforts "bear fruit". The motion to re-establish the committee was then backed unanimously by parliament late on Tuesday.  For his part, Nikos Paraskevopoulos, the Greek justice minister took the rhetoric a stage further on Wednesday by saying that German property in Greece could be seized as compensation.  He said he is "ready to approve" a Greek Supreme Court ruling in 2000, which ordered Germany to pay around €28 million to the relatives of 218 civilians in the village of Distomo, massacred by Nazi forces in 1944. The ruling said that assets such as property could be seized as compensation.  "The law states that the minister must give the order for the Supreme Court ruling to be carried out ... I am ready to give that order," he told Antenna TV, reports AFP.  The Greek statements come after weeks of uneasy relations between Berlin and Athens since the Greek far-left/nationalist coalition government came to power in late January.  Tsipras' first move as PM was to vist a memorial honoring  Greek resistance fighters killed by the Nazis in 1944 - a symbolic gesture that did not go unnoticed in Berlin.  Since then, the Greek government has sought to make good on its election promises to restructure its debt and to end EU-imposed austerity.  But tough negotiations with its creditors have seen it win only small concessions, such as renaming the hated Troika (representing its three international creditors) as "the institutions".   Contrary to what it wanted, the government was forced to extend an existing bailout - by four months - and is currently trying to reach a deal on which reforms it needs to carry out to get the next tranche of cash.  Germany is at the forefront of those saying Athens must stick to its prior commitments on reforms. Rhetoric between the two countries has turned nasty on several occasions since Athens' first bailout in 2010, with Greece - wracked by high unemployment and low growth - viewing Germany as too single-minded on austerity and with Germany seeing Greece as slow to undertake major changes.  The current talk from Athens is much harder than anything before, however.  It comes amid criticism of Tsipras by his own, hardline backbenchers, who expect him to deliver more of his campaign pledges.   Tsipras' defense minister Panos Kammenos, from the nationalist party in the coalition, also recently threatened to "flood" Europe with migrants if Greece does not get a debt deal.  "If they [the Eurogroup, a body which oversees eurozone governance] strike us, we will strike them. We will give to migrants from everywhere the documents they need to travel in the Schengen area [the EU's passport free zone], so that the human wave could go straight to Berlin."

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Greeks were screwed to save the banks, now the banks are free, they are being screwed to save EU taxpayers and the debt just keeps on growing, how anyone thinks this makes sense I do not know....Grexit is inevitable. The only question is when, and how?  Many imagine Grexit will mean be a return to the Drachma and cheap holidays in Greece and maybe even cheap property to buy in Greece.  The reality will be very different.  You cant wind the clock back to the nineties (some DT journalists think you can!).  Most likely scenario is a semi-orderly/disorderly retreat from the Euro.  Starting this weekend with drastic capital controls to prevent a run on Greek banks next week , in the run up to the 28 Feb deadline.  Followed by either a cut in Govt spending (unlikely) or IOU’s and delayed payments for /salaries /pensions/ contracts from the Greek govt.(more likely)
Reason being the Greek Govt budget is already at -12% at end of last year - they are bankrupt  and this is set to go higher - Greek taxpayers aren’t paying their taxes …they are stuffing their spare Euros in offshore accounts or under the mattress, plus the social spending promised by Syriza– rehiring public employees, pensions at 50, free energy for some (the ones who voted for them).   The introduction of capital transfer controls and IOU’s by Greek Govt will be de facto exit from Euro , although officially Greece wont leave the Euro and cant be kicked out… instead a dual currency economy will exist.   You will still pay for your holiday in Greece this year in Euros… nothing will change for those parts of the Greek economy which are productive and competitive. Likewise real assets like property will keep their Euro value.   A situation much like Cambodia for example – a third world country but with a competitive tourist industry. Tourists pay in Dollars and get dollars from ATM’s , but every time they pay with foreign currency they get their small change in local currency …ending up with a pile of useless local currency at the end of the holiday.
Unproductive parts of the Greek economy – public employees, pensioners, unemployed and the poor will have to use local, depreciating currency on a hand to mouth basis, like all banana republic currencies.  But if you are a Brit- look on the bright side - the depreciation in the Euro , primarily due  to this Greek fiasco, will result in holidays being 10-15% cheaper in2015 , as compared to 2014….

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Greece's anti-austerity government is presenting its first concrete proposals for an alternative debt plan at an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels.  The government wants to overhaul 30% of its bailout obligations, replacing them with a 10-point plan of reforms.  But EU ministers have warned that Greece must abide by existing terms.  The EU-IMF bailout for the debt-laden country expires on 28 February and Greece does not want it extended.  Instead the new Athens government is asking for a "bridge agreement" that will enable it to stay afloat until it can agree a new four-year reform plan with its EU creditors.  Thousands of left-wing demonstrators have rallied in Athens in support of their government's proposition.   Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's government won a confidence vote on Tuesday, with the support of 162 deputies in the 300-seat parliament.  The Athens stock exchange then fell by 4% ahead of the emergency Eurogroup meeting, which will see Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis unveil the controversial debt proposals.  The Syriza-led government says the conditions of the €240bn (£182bn; $272bn) bailout - sweeping spending cuts and public sector job losses - have impoverished Greece.  It rejects the "troika" team - the EU, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB) - overseeing the bailout's implementation.  The government's proposal for overhauling its bailout comes in four parts, according to a finance ministry source widely quoted in Greek media.  Under the first part, Greece would co-operate on 70% of its bailout conditions but wants to scrap 30% - replacing it with 10 new reforms to be agreed with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). It is unclear what these would be.
At a joint press conference on Wednesday, OECD head Angel Gurria told Mr Tsipras that his organisation would "work with Greece in getting growth back not only on the books but also... to the Greek citizens".  The government's plan also includes bond swaps and a proposal to reduce the primary budget surplus target for this year to 1.49% of GDP, rather than the 3%.

Friday, February 20, 2015

A possible Greek exit from the euro zone is not, obviously, a new concern. Three years ago, it looked like a realistic possibility until Berlin became convinced that the risks of contagion for other euro-zone countries was too great. But since then, the situation has changed dramatically. Both Greece and the euro zone are in better shape than they were in 2012 and would be better prepared to handle a Grexit.   Still, Greece's departure from the common currency union would almost certainly be more problematic than Schäuble has made it sound. Josef Ackermann, the former head of Deutsche Bank who led the debt haircut negotiations in 2012 on behalf of Greece's private creditors, continues to believe that a Greek exit "is still a very risky proposition. It would very probably lead to bank insolvencies and enormous social costs in Greece."
Euro-zone countries may have established a functioning bailout fund and made progress on a banking union scheme, but a Greek exit could attract speculators. "International investors would quickly begin asking which country might fall next," Ackermann believes. Markets could gain the impression that the currency union is a club that countries could join or leave as they liked.
Speculators could begin testing just how durable the rest of the euro zone really is and focus on countries like Portugal, Spain or Italy. "Their interest rates would increase drastically, which would thwart the policies of ECB head Mario Draghi, who would like to prevent exactly that," says Jochen Felsenheimer, CEO of the investment firm Xaia.
Greece's departure would also be just as expensive for the remaining euro-zone member states as a debt haircut because Athens would hardly be in a position to fulfill its financial obligations. Its currency would be drastically devalued and its economy would be threatened with collapse.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

It sounds at first like a crazy thought experiment: One morning, every resident of the euro zone comes home to find a check in their mailbox worth over €500 euros ($597) and possibly as much as €3,000. A gift, just like that, sent by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt.  Currently, the inflation rate is barely above zero and fears of a horror deflation scenario of the kind seen during the Great Depression in the United States are haunting the euro zone. The ECB, whose main task is euro stability, has lost control.  In this desperate situation, an increasing number of economists and finance professionals are promoting the concept of "helicopter money," tantamount to dispersing cash across the country by way of helicopter. The idea, which even Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman once found attractive, has triggered ferocious debates between central bank officials in Europe and academics. For backers, there's more to this than just a new instrument. They are questioning cast-iron doctrines of monetary policy.  One thing, after all, is becoming increasingly clear: Draghi and his fellow central bank leaders have exhausted all traditional means for combatting deflation.  The failure of these efforts can be easily explained. Thus far, central banks have primarily provided funding to financial institutions. The ECB provided banks with loans at low interest rates or purchased risky securities from them in the hope that they would in turn issue more loans to companies and consumers. The problem is that many households and firms are so far in debt already that they are eschewing any new credit, meaning the money isn't ultimately making its way to the real economy as hoped.  In response to this development, Sylvain Broyer, the chief European economist for French investment bank Natixis, says, "It would make much more sense to take the money the ECB wants to deploy in the fight against deflation and distribute it directly to the people." Draghi has calculated expenditures of a trillion euros for his emergency program, funds that would be sufficient to provide each euro zone citizen with a gift of around €3,000.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

The European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is expected to make good on his promise to “do whatever it takes” to save the deflating euro and sagging economy and introduce US-style quantitative easing to the tune of €500 billion in bond purchases. The sovereign bond purchases could inject €550 billion ($650 billion), according to a survey of economist by Bloomberg News. The bank meets Thursday and will make a rate decision announcement at 13:45 CET in Frankfurt, which will be followed by a news conference at 14:30 CET.  A non-standard monetary policy to purchase bonds and asset-backed securities is likely to be announced, and will include sovereign debt purchases, but not gold. It is very similar to the US stimulus scheme to ease the money supply. Declining prices and low growth have brought the EU economy, and its currency, to a sluggish stasis. Record low interest rates of 0.05 percent haven’t boosted the economy, either. This extra cash liquidity measure in the banking system will be instead of the current support program known as “suspending sterilization,” which amounted to about €175 billion in weekly fund extractions from EU banks over the last 4 years. This money won’t disappear, but will stay in the banks, and possibly be leant out, thus stimulating growth.   Germany has been against the stimulus, as it believes it could further agitate highly-indebted EU countries, and the German authorities have argued the bond buying program is illegal. Under EU law it is illegal to finance governments and debt. However, the ECB is allowed to buy government bonds in the secondary market and the move wouldn’t be in violation of any eurozone law. At December’s meeting, the ECB Governing Council said it will reassess the monetary stimulus package “early next year.”

 

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

...a sign to start stuffing the mattresses...


I still hold out hope that an economic implosion of the Eurozone could lead to the break up of the EU which affords Romania and others an easy low cost and smooth exit without any political upheaval. If such a bounty were to happen it could mark the very lowest point of 100 years of perpetual decline. The eurozone has officially slipped into deflation, after latest figures showed prices in December were 0.2pc lower than a year earlier.   The figure, far short of the European Central Bank's target of just under 2pc, is the latest pointer towards fresh intervention by the bank as it tries to prop up a sluggish economy.   Energy prices slumped 6.3pc compared to a year ago, driven by falling oil prices. The cost of industrial goods and food was flat while services rose 1.2pc. This is the first time the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009.   The ECB will meet on January 22 to consider whether to go beyond its existing stimulus measures and start buying sovereign bonds in a program of quantitative easing.   ECB president Mario Draghi has dropped numerous hints that he hopes to push cash through the eurozone economy in this way, despite grumblings in Germany that such measures are outside the central bank’s mandate. The euro, which reached a fresh nine-year low of $1.1842 before the figures were released, rose slightly after the announcement.   The currency has dropped from a high of $1.39 in May as the economic recovery in the United States diverged from the torpid eurozone.  The inflation figures follow German data on Monday showing that the currency bloc’s biggest member had experienced inflation of just 0.1pc in December, down from 0.5pc in the previous month and short of forecasts of 0.2pc. A purchasing managers’ index for December was published on Tuesday showing continued weak growth in the eurozone economy, with a reading of 51.4. A score of 50 or above denotes growth, but survey compiler Markit said the reading pointed to expansion of just 0.1pc in the final three months of 2014.   Watched from the sidelines of the UK, a fanatically driven religious war and deflationary spiral both coming from different directions to annihilate the entire European Project and re ignite a nationalist / fascist backlash throughout Central and Eastern Europe that engulfs the Continent would undoubtedly be the most exhilarating and awesome piece of history to unfold in 1000 years.   Armed with 24 hour digital media, chilled beers and comfy armchairs it would deliver the most stunning entertainment on a perennial basis as seminal pages of history are written whose importance to the future of Humanity and the map of the earth is of such magnitude that will be taught, debated and analyzed for hundreds, possibly thousands of years into the future.   Every time I dismiss it as just a dream events take it one big step nearer....So, the Eurozone enters a deflationary spiral and the markets? Shows just how disconnected they are from real economic data. Pushing up on a few words of obfuscation from Draghi as opposed to looking at the hard aspects of economics and the ability for major companies to generate profit / return.   If that ain't a sign to start stuffing the mattresses, I don't know what is.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Greece was plunged into a renewed political crisis  after parliament failed to elect a head of state, setting the stage for snap polls tipped to bring radical leftists to power. Athens’s 300-seat house voted by 168-132 in favor of Stavros Dimas, a former European commissioner and the sole candidate for the post, becoming president, but he had been required to win 180 ballots.
“The number of 168 votes is a clear parliamentary majority but as the constitution foresees it does not allow my election,” he said. “What is important, now, is the interests of the country and the Greek people … what unites us is Greece.”  Under Greek law the parliament now has to be dissolved within 10 days and elections called within 30. The prime minister, Antonis Samaras, whose conservative-dominated two-party alliance has been in office since June 2012, said he would seek elections as soon as possible. “Tomorrow I will go to the president of the republic to request snap polls as early as possible on 25 January,” he said. “It is the hour of democracy, which means truth and responsibility, not populism.”  Five years into Greece’s worst economic crisis in decades, the stridently anti-austerity Syriza party is leading polls and likely to win. The leftists have declared that renegotiation of the accords Athens has signed with the EU, ECB and IMF – the bodies that have kept it afloat to the tune of €240bn – will be among its top priorities. It will also seek to write off the country’s monumental €320bn debt – ambitions that have revived fears of Greece colliding with creditors and being ejected from the eurozone.   Following the vote, Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, told reporters the country had experienced “a historic day”.
“In a few days the Samaras government, which pillaged the country, will belong to the past, as will the memoranda of austerity,” he said of the bailout accords. “The future has already begun. You should be optimistic and happy.”  The roll-call vote took place in a somber atmosphere, eclipsed by the tragedy on board a ferry in the Adriatic where rescue efforts were at that point continuing almost 24 hours after the vessel caught fire.  Saying it is a crisis depends very much from where the individual is sitting. For the pro-EU and the bankers it might well be a crisis as it threatens their corrupt game, but for ordinary Greeks and eurosceptics this is a good day.
For 5 years Greece has been plunged into crisis, GDP down 27% from the 2008 peak, average household income down 40%, debt to GDP over 170%, unemployment near 30%, youth unemployment over 50%, Golden Dawn Nazis on the march, suicide rate up...........and so it goes on. If that isn't a crisis in the last 5 years I don't what is. If Syriza wins then the real hard work starts, they are going to renegotiate the MOU with the Troika, and if no agreement can be reached will leave the euro. That will cause even more pain in the short run, but ultimately it is the only salvation for Greece.   If there is contagion, and a fair chance there will be then the blight of the euro can be consigned to the dustbin of history where it belongs, along with the EU. This could be the re-ignition of the eurocrisis which has been dormant for the last year or so. ,, That sucking noise you can faintly hear? that's Euros, rushing out of Greek banks by the truckload. If you had EU denominated savings, you'd move them too. It may not be a high probability, but one outcome is a Grexit and anyone with EU savings will have them swapped for new currency at a rate they didn't like, which would probably get a lot worse rather quickly. Anyone with EU denominated debts might quite like such a settlement (unless it was you who was owed the money).   After a ghastly reset, the country would find it hard if not impossible to borrow, and imported goods (in EU) would be unaffordable expensive.
Inequality would probably get worse, as those with assets will long ago have hedged by parking some of what they own outside of Greece and they'll be rich in local currency.
Whatever happens, it will be bad for those at the lower end, as always it is. I feel very sorry for them. I have no idea what would be the best as well as realistic to happen.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

No one in Brussels or other EU capitals is surprised to learn that Jean-Claude Juncker’s Luxembourg was, and is, a tax haven. And no one doubts that the new president of the European commission, a crafty survivor whose political longevity is peerless in Europe, knew enough about the vast tax avoidance schemes practised there, even if he did not bother to master all the fine print.
The question is whether Juncker, a little more than a month into a five-year term as head of the EU executive, can weather the storm and credibly perform a poacher-turned-gamekeeper role of setting up an EU regime to clamp down on tax evasion and avoidance.  There are few leaders in Europe who understand the workings of the EU as well as the former prime minister of Luxembourg. With the exception of Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, Juncker is the only leader left who took part in the negotiation of the Maastricht treaty more than 20 years ago which dealt with the impact on the EU of German reunification and the process to create the euro.  He has been attending EU summits uninterruptedly for 20 years. No one at the summit table can boast that record. He knows everyone. He has friends everywhere. A fixer, a mediator between France and Germany (needed right now as much as ever); the consummate EU insider, he also knows where the EU’s skeletons are buried.  Asked about the impact of the Luxleaks on Juncker’s credibility and the authority of the new commission, the commission vice-president, Jyrki Katainen, squirmed and left the room. “I trust him,” he told the Guardian. “I’m not in a position to give any advice … We have to focus on what the president has done by himself and not done.”  Last March, the EU’s centre-right leaders, including the paramount leader, Angela Merkel of Germany, met in Dublin and backed Juncker to become the next commission chief after he was unseated last year as Luxembourg’s prime minister.  They will not make life difficult for him now. For them, mayhem at the top of the commission would seriously destabilise an EU desperately trying to come up with policies to drag Europe out of years of crisis, while anti-EU populists give the leaders a hard time across the continent. The consensus on not rocking the Juncker boat was evident in the European parliament last month. The far-right populists, led by Nigel Farage of Britain’s Ukip, Marine Le Pen of France’s Front National and the Five Star movement mavericks of Italy’s Beppe Grillo, tabled a vote of no confidence in Juncker.  Everyone else held their noses. Even Juncker critics on the left refused to back the motion, while the mainstream Christian and social democrats, and liberals all solidly supported the president.  Juncker took the entire 28-strong commission to the parliament, defended himself after the first round of Luxembourg leaks, and walked away unharmed. Besides, in the endless turf wars waged between rival EU institutions in Brussels, the parliament views Juncker as “its” commission chief – it played a key role in getting him the job in the first place – and will not challenge him too severely.  If there is pressure on Juncker, it will come not from the EU political elite, but from the media in the form of further revelations. Officials and diplomats say his fate will hinge on how compelling the evidence against him is. But the competition department of the commission he heads is also investigating Luxembourg on the grounds that some of the “comfort letters”, tax rulings, and avoidance strategies agreed by his then administration amounted to state aid in breach of EU competition rules. The cases of Fiat and Amazon are being investigated, while Skype may have to be added to what seems certain to become a long, and lengthening list.
Juncker insists his position at the head of the commission will not impair the credibility and impartiality of its investigation.  Rather than jeopardise his position, the political elites in Germany and France and elsewhere will exploit the Juncker scandal to push an agenda bringing more transparency to tax arrangements to counter “tax-dumping” between EU governments.
Juncker claims to be a champion of such moves, suggesting either a Damascene conversion to the cause or a calculation that his political future depends on being seen to be a born-again proponent of fair taxation.  For the moment at least, Juncker looks tarnished by the disclosures, but not really in fear for his job. Although he is free to resign, he cannot be removed as an individual. The entire European commission would have to go, felled by a vote of no confidence in the European parliament. This is a remote prospect at the moment. And for this to happen, national leaders, chief among them Merkel, would have to signal that Juncker’s time is up and then press their allies in the parliament into organising the commission’s collapse. No one in Brussels at present is talking in such terms.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Everyone came to realize that efforts to deepen Ukraine's ties with the EU had failed. But no one at the time was fully aware of the consequences the failure would have: that it would lead to one of the world's biggest crises since the end of the Cold War; that it would result in the redrawing of European borders; and that it would bring the Continent to the brink of war. It was the moment Europe lost Russia.  For Ukraine, the failure in Vilnius resulted in disaster. Since its independence in 1991, Ukraine has strived to orient itself towards the EU while at the same time taking pains to ensure that those actions don't damage its relations with Moscow. The choice between West and East, which both Brussels and Moscow have forced Kiev to make, has had devastating consequences for the fragile country.  But the impact of that fateful evening in Vilnius goes far beyond Ukraine's borders. Some 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and almost 70 years after the end of World War II, Europe is once again divided. The estrangement between the Russians and the Europeans is growing with Moscow and the West more inimical toward each other today than during the final phase of the Cold War. It's a reality that many in Europe have long sought to ignore. The story of the run-up to Vilnius is one filled with errors in judgment, misunderstandings, failures and blind spots. It is a chronicle of foreign policy failure foretold -- on all sides. Russia underestimated the will of Ukrainians to steer their country toward the EU and was overly confident in its use of its political power over Kiev as a leverage.  For its part, the EU had negotiated a nearly 1,000-page treaty, but officials in Brussels hadn't paid close enough attention to the realities of those power politics. Even in Berlin, officials for too long didn't take Russian concerns -- about the encroachment of NATO and the EU into Eastern Europe -- seriously enough. The idea that Moscow might be prepared to use force to prevent a further expansion of the Western sphere of influence didn't seem to register with anyone.
With the special role it plays and the special responsibility it has for Europe, the meltdown also represented a failure for Germany. Foreign policy has long been considered one of Chancellor Angela Merkel's greatest strengths, but even she ignored the warning signs. Merkel has proven herself over the years to be a deft mediator who can defuse tensions or work out concrete solutions. But crisis management alone is not enough for good foreign policy. Missing in this crisis was a wider view and the ability to recognize a conflict taking shape on the horizon. Instead, officials in Berlin seemed to believe that because nobody wanted conflict, it wouldn't materialize.
Merkel did say at the summit that, "The EU and Germany have to talk to Russia. The Cold War is over." But the insight came too late.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

According to many analysts, the future of the eurozone was secured after a now famous speech by ECB chief Mario Draghi, in July 2012, in which he promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.  But according to leaked transcripts - obtained by the FT - of interviews for a book by former US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner, the ECB chief’s comments were anything but planned.
According to Geithner, the remarks were “off-the-cuff” and “totally impromptu”. “I went to see Draghi and (...) at that point, he had no plan. He had made this sort of naked statement of this stuff. But they stumbled into it”, a leaked transcript of the interview says.  Improvisation as the origin to one of the most important comments on the eurozone fits with other descriptions of the ECB president.  Simeon Djankov, Bulgarian finance minister from 2009 to 2013, describes the different personalities of Draghi and his predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet.
In his book “Inside the Euro Crisis”, he writes about the different personalities of successive ECB presidents Jean-Claude Trichet and Draghi.  During meetings with the EU finance ministers, Trichet “would read prepared statements, and after that he would fade into the role of passive observer,” Djankov wrote in his book “Inside the euro crisis”.  Draghi, on the other hand, had a “more instinctive approach” and “scribbled his talking points on bits of paper a few minutes before the meeting began, tossed out comments throughout the discussions, and stayed until the end”...
Eurozone inflation rose to 0.4pc in the year to October, up from 0.3pc in the preceding month. At that level, price growth remained stuck well below the ECB's medium-term target of close to 2pc.
“It is essential to bring back inflation to target and without delay”, Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, said in a speech in Frankfurt on Friday.
The central bank official made reference to the quantitative easing schemes launched by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, noting that they had reduced the strength of the country's respective currencies.  Traders sold the euro on Mr Draghi's dovish comments, as the currency fell by more than three-quarters of a percentage point to less than 1.25 against the dollar. Mr Draghi stressed that while there had been improvements in the financial sphere, these had “not transferred fully into the economic sphere”, where the situation “remains difficult”.   The currency bloc has an eye-wateringly high unemployment rate of 11.5pc, while economic growth has ground to a near-halt .   The eurozone managed to dodge a third technical recession since the financial crisis, but it now appears that the euro area economy is unlikely to pick up speed by the end of the year.  The ECB has made a number of interest rate cuts across the year in an attempt to boost the economy, consequently bringing one of its three main rates - the deposit facility rate - into negative territory.   The rate is currently maintained at -0.2pc, meaning that banks that park their money with the ECB overnight have to pay the central bank for the privilege.

 

Monday, November 17, 2014

Cold war, this is the new mantra, it is on every lips. It is trendy. Gents you must be scared, they (the West) have run out of idea on how to demonize Russia as it is not working so well anymore, so let's go back to Cold war fears and wake up some old demons.  And with the Republicans back in power in the US, it might as well end up in a hot war....Western countries are at the gates of a new cold war with Russia, sparked by the Ukraine crisis and a continuing failure to grasp the depth and seriousness of Vladimir Putin’s grievances with the US and EU, the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, has warned.  Speaking to the Guardian at his official residence before Thursday’s conference in Helsinki attended by the UK prime minister, David Cameron, and Nordic and Baltic state leaders, Niinistö said Finland had a long tradition of trying to maintain friendly relations with Russia. But it would not be pushed around. ... “The Finnish way of dealing with Russia, whatever the situation, is that we will be very decisive to show what we don’t like, where the red line is. And that is what we are prepared to do,” Niinistö said, referring to recent violations of Finnish airspace by Russian military aircraft.  “We put the Hornets [US-made Finnish air force F-18 fighter aircraft] up there and the Hornets were flying alongside the Russian planes … The Russians turned back. If they had not, what would we have done? I would not speculate.”... "Finland, formerly a grand duchy of the Russian empire, declared its independence in 1917 after the Russian revolution. It survived two separate conflicts with the Soviet Union during the second world war. During the cold war Finland followed a policy of “active neutrality” to keep Moscow at bay. The two countries share an 830-mile (1,300km) land border."  No mention of effectively being allied with Nazi Germany.  Although we all know that the Nazis are being rehabilitated as they become re-useful to Europe and its latest Drang nach Osten....Putin is what he is, and Russia is what it is. Unfortunately the EU is what it is as well, and the EU largely caused this by meddling in the Ukraine, forcing it to make a choice when it is a country divided by a national and ethnic faultline. The part in contention was actually part of Russia until about 60 years ago and the population there naturally feel an affinity with Russia because they speak and are ethnically, Russian.  Whether the EU wants a Cold War is a moot point given the economic ties and the danger of further conflict, but lest we forget, this is an organisation comprised of countries that regard defence spending as an overhead and their armed forces as a ceremonial guard for foriegn dignitaries, and flag wavers for third world disaster relief. If there was a new Cold War we would be relying on the hated Americans for military muscle, and where was the EU when Bush wanted to put early warning radar in Poland

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Chancellor George Osborne has insisted the UK will pursue its "national interest" in Europe despite German warnings about its future in the EU.
Mr Osborne said the British people wanted concerns about EU immigration and access to benefits addressed.  The German government has insisted the right of EU nationals to live and work in other member states is sacrosanct.  Angela Merkel has reportedly said she would rather see the UK leave the EU than allow a quota system for migrants.  The BBC's Europe Editor Gavin Hewitt said the German chancellor wanted the UK to stay in.  But he said an article in Der Spiegel news magazine, which quoted German government sources as saying she feared the UK was near a "point of no return", signalled Berlin's view that British calls for curbs on the free movement of people was a "red line" that could not be crossed.  David Cameron wants to renegotiate the terms of the UK's continued membership before holding an in-out referendum, if he remains in power after next year's general election.  The prime minister, who is expected to set out his next steps on immigration before Christmas, has insisted freedom of movement of workers would be "at the very heart" of his renegotiation strategy.  Der Spiegel reported that Mr Cameron was now looking at a plan to stretch the EU rules "to their limits" in order to ban migrants who do not have a job, and to deport those who are unable to support themselves after three months.
Speaking to journalists on Monday, Mrs Merkel's spokesman - Steffen Seibert - said this was "not a bilateral matter between Germany and Britain but between Britain and all of its European partners".
It was up to the UK to "clarify" what wider role it wanted to play in the EU, he added.
Mr Osborne said a Conservative government would always "do what is in the interest of our country and our economy" but the UK would approach future negotiations in a "calm and rational" way.
Tory backbencher David Davis: Merkel's warning is "bloodcurdling"
"What we have today is a story based on speculation about what Angela Merkel might have said about something David Cameron might say in the future," he told BBC Breakfast.
"The Germans understand the disquiet caused among the British people when you have people coming from other parts of Europe to claim our benefits who do not necessarily have jobs to go to."

Friday, November 7, 2014

See here's the thing - all the fake activity the west and particularly the Anglosphere is built upon may be the 'engine of the world economy' but actually how relevant is this to the vast bulk of the world's population? ... We need a different model - great 'victories' like selling the same consumer product over and over and over in ever decreasing cycles is not sustainable. Raping the third world of its resources and bribing its elite for the privilege is not sustainable.   India and China are abetting the west by under cutting western workers and not advancing their own people. In India this is an emergent phenomena in China a deliberate one.   We're running towards the Marxist end game of stagnation as capital tries to shore itself up by forcing its customers to accept a lower standard of living via bought and paid for politics.  There is plenty of scope for activity to increase if it is geared towards something other than preserving destructive business models. But that is not as profitable in the short term as gambling in a rigged financial market and riding asset bubbles...  The global economy is in trouble because of a fundamental problem: the way institutional capital is concentrated in a few hands (the big banks and allied funds) and distributed to the usual suspects more often than not for the wrong reasons.  Skewed wealth distribution among individuals has received much more attention. But even the ultra rich individuals have to rely on the same financial network, managed by Central Banking with the Fed as the big daddy of the Central Banks. This network has become short sighted, greedy, incompetent, and often acts corruptly in a variety of ways. Too much power tends to do this.  The UK economy is not doing so well. Would be silly to think a few blips of growth, returning to the size of an economy several years ago (less per capita), in return for a mountain of debt is a positive development. No, it's just building up for a bigger disaster around the corner. The US and the EU have to realize that the recovery of the global economy has to emanate from four factors: (a) reforming the banking industry so capital, (b) investing in and developing emerging markets where the greatest growth potential is, (c) focusing on "real" products and services rather than financial manipulations, and (d) making capital available across the board to the bulk of the people rather than the cronies of the banks and the state.   The debt defaults of the poor are never so severe as the rich. Any single poor person will never have a debt default to rock the bank. But not so the case with the ultra rich. But the ultra rich tend to get far greater access to capital, underwritten by all of us thanks to the fiat currency structure, by orders of magnitude. And this capital is spent far from prudently or optimally for the economy.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Two mafia bosses - incompetent and corrupt - leaving the EU stage - thank's god !!!

BRUSSELS (EUObserver) - Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso said goodbye to EU leaders on Friday (24 October) after attending their final summit as presidents of the EU council and commission.  For the Belgian Van Rompuy it marks almost the end of an almost 5-year term in which he worked behind the scenes to keep the EU united as it went through its deepest-ever economic crisis and tried to find solutions from preventing it ever happening again.  He was the first ever permanent president of the European Council, meaning the poetry-writing politician got to define the parameters of the job, making it a chairman rather than presidential post and preferring to be low-key.  "Politics is a rough trade" he noted but said he had been given loyalty and respect by colleagues. "I am leaving with the feeling that I have done all that I could." He recalled the bitter negotiations on the EU's longterm budget as requiring the most political skill and, like Barroso, remembered the pride of collecting the EU's Nobel peace prize. "Not only is my mandate coming to a close but so is my political and public life which has filled a large part of my life," said Van Rompuy, who formally steps down on 30 November.  He added, in his typical style, "in my life I have never had the feeling of being irreplaceable. There was a European Council before me. There will be a European Council without me." Barroso, whose term finishes next Friday (31 October), noted that he had attended 75 EU leader summits since he became commission president ten years ago. He said that how the EU had evolved over the years made him optimistic about its future, and spoke of "great" and "very difficult" moments over the past decade.  The Portuguese politician, who was generally regarded as reactive rather than visionary president, spoke for longer at the final press conference than Van Rompuy and mentioned that he had gathered his "testimonies" which could be downloaded "for free". An earlier ceremony among leaders saw the two leaders given porcelain plates as gifts a long with a signed 'family photo' of all the leaders.  Van Rompuy's plate was inscribed with one of his Haikus (Japanese poetry form) about Europe, written in his native Dutch; Barroso a plate with his motto "Let's build Europe together".  German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave a little speech on behalf of everyone. She was chosen, she said, because she was now the longest-serving EU leader.  She said Barroso worked as a lynchpin between the EU main institutions and reminded member states of the rules "whether we liked it or not" and said leaders would "miss" having Van Rompuy at the helm. While it was the two politicians' last summit, the meeting is most likely to be remembered for a row with Britain over it having to pay an extra €2bn towards the EU.  Prime Minister David Cameron, in a podium-banging press conference, said he would not pay it by the 1 December deadline.  The dispute escalated because it was initially unclear how the figures were arrived at. Barroso spent much of his final press conference as EU commission president going through the finer details of EU budget calculations for member states.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Greece’s finance minister, Gikas Hardouvelis, argued in talks with the IMF boss, Christine Lagarde, that Athens can do without further loans from the Washington-based lender of last resort. Emergency bailout funds have propped up the Greek economy since it came close to crashing on a mountain of deficit and debt in 2010.
“Not only do we not need a new memorandum [loan agreement],” said prime minister Antonis Samaras, addressing parliament hours before his government survived a crucial vote of confidence early on Saturday. “We don’t need the rest of the money that from the start of next year we were on course to get from the current memorandum. We can leave it one and a half years earlier … that is our goal.”
Funding from the IMF had been due to expire in March 2016, while funds from the eurozone end this year. At €240bn (£188bn), the lifeline was the largest rescue programme in global financial history and was aimed at preventing the debt crisis that affected Athens from spreading to the rest of the eurozone.
Samaras denies that Greece wants an acrimonious break from the IMF. The organisation, perhaps more than the EU, has insisted on tough reforms and austerity measures in return for the rescue funds. These have exacerbated a six-year recession, the worst on record, left a quarter of the workforce unemployed, and seen support for Samaras’s fragile coalition plummet.
Hardouvelis, who met Lagarde with his predecessor, the governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, is thought to have presented a plan detailing the country’s ability to cover its financing needs from bond markets. But the IMF chief has already signalled that she does not share such confidence. Although the IMF is also keen to disengage from the programme – and is under pressure from member states to focus on countries in the developing world – Greece is faced with a financing gap of about €15bn next year.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Growing fears about the US economy sparked a global stock market sell-off, with shares in London, Europe and the US falling sharply following poor data from America.... As the dollar falls so the value of companies rise as they are valued in widgets, so as the dollars rises so the value of companies fall, also if you have a large deficit that can not be paid for with tax then you create perpetual bonds at zero percent interest to the value of the difference, now both the UK and US are doing this, they call it QE, but no where can I find this in this paper or its comments, is every commenter here a troll typing a from a script? I live in a world of either robots or crazy people...The QE addicted stock markets are suffering cold turkey. They expect their next fix soon. The Fed dealer will comply to keep his customers happy. Sadly they still don't realise the QE fix makes the addict sicker.  I'm looking forward to the November Gold Referendum in Switzerland when the people will vote for ensuring the Swiss franc is actually backed up by something more than a promise of more funny money.  A further nail in the coffin for this absurd charade... QE means that the Fed has lots of US bonds. This kept interest rates low. Why doesn't the Fed start selling these bonds as there is now a demand for a safe haven in US dollars? The will prevent interest rates on the bonds falling lower and get the Fed out of the real economy.
OK what is wrong with this idea?   High rates increase the debt repayments for all debtors, the largest of which is the USGovt. An entity which has, as it happens, dramatically increased the proportion of its debt that is short-term, a move designed to lower interest costs. This also exposes the US to huge rate-risk as they must roll this short-term debt frequently. They cannot risk higher rates, possibly ever.  What they would ideally like is high inflation combined with low rates, to inflate away the value of all those trillions in debt while keeping interest payments down...  My sense is that the belief that Central Bank policy can insulate investors from any and all risk is now wearing thin. Finally. After a very long wait for those of us who always knew it would. If true, this has profound implications that will quickly become apparent.  As long as traders believed that the CBs would always be willing and able to save the day in case of any market pullbacks, why not leverage up and go all-in? It's been nearly impossible to lose money in the stock/bond/property markets over the past 5 years. Many/most traders know that the CB's have been blowing a massive asset bubble over the past few years but they also believe that they're smarter than everyone else and will be able to sell before the crowd when the bubble starts to pop - so why not, as former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince memorably put it, 'Dance as long as the music is playing'?

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

José Viñals, the IMF’s financial counsellor, said: “Policymakers are facing a new global imbalance: not enough economic risk-taking in support of growth, but increasing excesses in financial risk-taking posing stability challenges.”
This is not what the central banks intended when they cut the cost of borrowing and cranked up the electronic-money printing presses in the process known as quantitative easing. They expected cheap and plentiful money to rouse the animal spirits of entrepreneurs, encouraging them to invest. Instead, they have provided the casino chips for speculators.
The IMF has identified three main problems:
First, while the traditional banks have been strengthened since the crisis by the injection of new capital, they are not really fit for purpose. The IMF conducted a survey of 300 banks in advanced economies and found that institutions accounting for almost 40% of total assets were not strong enough to supply adequate credit in support of the recovery.
Second, risk is shifting from traditional banks to what is known as the shadow banking system – institutions such as hedge funds, investment banks and money market funds that do not take deposits directly from the public, but have grown in size and importance over the past decade. The fund thinks the next crisis could well stem from the shadow banks.
Third, by guiding financial markets to expect only limited and slow increases in interest rates, the fund fears it has made investors complacent. Prices of a range of financial assets have risen; there has been little distinction between investments that are safe and those that are risky; and markets have been eerily free from volatility. Asked where the next sub-prime crisis was going to come from, Viñals said he did not have a crystal ball. Clearly, though, the IMF fears there is something nasty lurking out there.